Saturday, November 1, 2014

Aren't you jealous?

Moral: Wherein we get serious.

With the upswing, after a little downturn, of the markets, of late, one can easily think of those who are elated. On the other side, you have myriads, a much larger set (we will get to that), who are not rolling the dough. Such as? Think of President Clinton who said that he missed the rally (poor guy, perhaps, he was kidding (but, we can use him as an example of this larger set - albeit that he is not of the usual bent there) - we can go on at length, and will, at some point).

Of that set, too, are people without the 401K (or with one that stinks). In particular, the question came from one who was at a company that had a prime (we will go into that) plan but who sold out. So, the questioner was thrown into a second-rate situation after having experienced the world of the elated.

Oh, those elated (we will go on about them, too). His query came to me after I expounded upon near-zero, somewhat briefly. The thing is that the Christian belief system of the guy ought to consider some of the adages on not running after money or throwing away the soul for worldly pursuits or ... (again, we will go on about this - God help us).

Essentially, my response was no, I am not jealous. In fact, I would not want to be ca-pital-sino stuck (even on the winning side - karma, folks, for one). Too, there are better ways which I am in the process of defining. Anyone listening? The motivation is to have sustainable economics.

 Now, let's itemize some players.
  • The game runners. They win, either side. But, as new money comes in (we will go on about this), there will be the bull side until they run out of suckers (again, can go on). On the downside, these people sweat as their easy (ill-begotten) gains are shown to be flim-flam (very much made-off in character). Too, they can lose, for many reasons. 
  • Leveragers. They who would use debt to enhance their gains (see ill-begotten). My question is how can money flowing in be considered "gain" in the sense of income. Rather, it is money moving from one person to another without anything of value being in the situation. So, these types can lose big. 
  • Those who talk bull are elated. Why not? However, with the proper deconstruction, their whole bit of hype is seen as what it is. 
  • Which brings up Janet and her crowd. And, Ben. He started this bubble (we will go on about that, too). So much to say here. Like, it must be nice to see the "investor" community hang on one's every word. What if the Fed told these types to put money to solving "real" problems? 
  • Those with good 401K plans or who are on the proper side of the ca-pital-sino, especially if they can sell when they think some max is set. But, then, things could fall fast too (as we have seen time and again) so that they lose more than they wanted.
  • Those who like the cheshire multiple which takes a little input and throws out marvelous numbers (as if by magic) to which the talking heads can pay a lot of attention in their eternal drive for prime at being-in-your-face-ness.
  • Those who can sell now and move to something more mature (yes, sandbox, please). At some point, we'll have the downturn that will remove "gains" faster than an eye blink. 
  • They who bought late (poor souls). We have to define the model properly to show that the most will lose by the nature of things.  
  • ... 
So, let's be real. Do I wonder sometimes if I am correct? Do I get little green-eyed states? Of course, I am human. However, it does not take the rationality long to put pins in that type of euphoria. At the same time, I get more bolstered in the arguments for near-zero (yes, it is game theoretic) and its reality (despite the win-win whiners - will go on about this).


There are a few more who could be numerated in this set of the elated (elites, mostly).


Again, no. I am not jealous. My interest is showing other ways that are more suitable for mature folks.

Remarks:  Modified: 03/22/2015

11/03/2014 -- American roles are still related to the dream.

03/15/2015 -- Finally, getting around to the pending business.

03/22/2015 -- Jealous? No way, Jose. FED gives Wall Street what it wishes.

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