Sunday, July 27, 2014

Data-driven purgatory

Moral: Wherein we pipe up, just to show the interest is still there.

So, what is going on? Well, we're waiting to see Janet's influence emerge. Right now, it's still a sampling stage, it seems.
Janet's dashboard

The latest thing that motivated something here was Janet's talking about data-driven approaches (see the recent Bloomberg Businessweek interview, for example). As in, the data that she is looking at now won't get her to stop flaying the savers. Well, Janet, change your data goggles, for one thing.

Too, we all know that Economics is dismal. All of that data has so many faults (approach, viewpoint, ...) that any strict adherence to whatever comes from economic data can be categorized, at best, as irrational, especially if the exuberance at the data's wonderfulness is demonstrably obvious.

Savers are barely holding on to life. Who are they? Let's look at the other side. What rational society would indebted its future generations so heavily as we seem to expect now? Crazy. Of course, people needs jobs to spend and to save and to pay their debts. 

But, the gaming that is evident now, with the ballooning pockets, does not an economy make. Janet, have you looked at the infrastructural issues, of late -- say, the uncountable failing bridges, highways falling apart - and, those with the biggest pockets want to step away, taking their gains, which do not take into account the totality of costs? Near zero is the thing to bring forward in the discussion in this case.  

Look, debt even at a low interest is still that. Debt is something to manage and control. Too, the whole model of thinking that the consumer drives things, requiring debt thereby, is suspect. 

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Aside. Alan was king while Ben was a real nice prince (the 17K+ can be mostly attributed to his largess). What can we say about Janet? Too early to tell. But, however this all unfolds, she will be bringing several unknowns to the table that we have not seen before. 

By the way, data driven implies computational system (which is so full of holes that we ought to be quaking in our boots) and many unresolved issues. Methinks that "data driven" brings along with it some type of blinders that are comforting to some folks.  

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And, none of this ought to misconstrued as anti-science. Janet is right on one thing (perhaps, more). Rule-driven is chasing after silver bullets and is especially troublesome due to its reliance upon the computational. But, then her data-driven mindset is as problematic. 

Remarks:  Modified: 07/26/2015

07/31/2014 -- Added in Yellen's dashboard. Why is it that flaying the savers is the key action? She could have delayed the tapering and taken the rate up a notch or two. ... With the DOW sagging, as it is today, what will Janet do? More coo-coo as we saw from Ben all of these past years? 

08/05/2014 -- Will Janet talk goo-goo, coo-coo to the addicts? Actually, now might be a good time, in the confusion, to raise the interest rate to 1.25% or so. And, establish 1.0% as a lower bound.

09/17/2014 -- Yes, she did. The coo-coo, goo-goo goes on. The landscape is strewn with the lifeless bodies of the savers. Thanks, Janet.

01/15/2015 -- At last, a series that will establish the basis and extensions, as required. We are going to go back to some simple and come forward to the modern, complicated economy. Why? My long chain of ancestors (inherited via Prof. Lucio Arteaga) is one motivation.

07/26/2015 -- This has had some recent reads. Lots going on, including poster boys coming out of the woodwork. We intend to get back to this topic: consumer as central to things economic (metaphysically sound).

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