Thursday, December 24, 2009

Grandsons of Samuelson

Moral: Wherein, we remember Paul Anthony Samuelson, the Nobel-winning, and highly influential, Economist.


Business Week (12/26/09 & 1/4/10) asks, 'did the followers go astray?' which references a forthcoming paper, Sins of the Sons of Samuelson (PDF at WellesleyDavid Colander and Casey Rothschild).

As the adage goes (Biblical origin), the sins of the fathers are visited upon the sons. Well, hopefully, the next generation can take a re-look, even if it is done autodidact'dly.

It has been said before that we're suffering from the over-exuberances that computational prowess brought forth and sustained over the last part of the 20th and the early part of the 21st centuries. Perhaps, we can now take an assessment and be a little wiser going forward (idiocies abound, even those of a highly mundane nature). And, it's not an issue of which side of the pond anymore with the rising of those over the bigger pond being a much larger factor.

In this case, perhaps, we can exonerate Mr. Samuelson and blame the followers. Computation is much different than in his day. That Quants have run wild is only loosely associated with his work.

He, though, is one who worked to get the genie out of the bottle. Can we get it back under control?

Well, we'll continue to consider these types of question, especially as we all share the pains when the economy is malfease'd.

Remarks:   Modified: 01/15/2015

12/29/2009 -- Is the uber-Nerd a son? Also, Paul Krugman says that the 00s were a big zero; well, let's introduce him to near zero. The sons need to realize that gains must have a substantial basis, as in being 'real' and beyond mere model-mania.12/15/2012 -- Coase, on the subject.

02/10/2010 -- We could probably use the auto (and recent events) as a way to characterize the concepts of the blog. Of course, we have the value versus quality mis-think as part of the problem. Business Week reports that Toyota was asking suppliers for a 10% cut. Well, such scrimping would have an effect, even if it was only in looks. However, cutting into the life of a system may appear smart but, actually, relies on the same unstable basis as does a lot of economic thinking.

05/07/2010 -- Out of control, essentially, and not healthy for the backbone.

05/25/2010 -- Who will (or can) lead out of the morass?

01/27/2011 -- The chimera shines.

05/28/2011 -- Lemons problemdark pools, ... Oh, so much to look at! Avatars, too.

03/23/2012 -- Renewal of the idea (and related energies) via Cooper and CiE.

12/03/2013 -- In a Fortune talk with Larry Summers, there is a mention that he is a nephew of Samuelson. So, that is great to know, as it'll allow some discussion of gene/meme issues (actually, the blogger has been working this topic in another milieu; Ben's thoughts on the failings of meritocracy ought to bring it back to fore here). Too, Larry was in charge when the Glass-Steagall restrictions were relaxed so that the big boys could then play wildly and mess up our banking system. Thanks, Larry. Good to know that he was one of the players in that bad choice. You see, the pusher of rationality had a bit of irrationality; well, was that not a sign of the times?

12/06/2013 -- If only Ben would put a shot across the bow. He's helped the chimera unfold in unhealthy ways. He could, at least, say a mea culpa.

02/26/2014 -- Acknowledgements for Lucio Arteaga.

01/15/2015 -- At last, a series that will establish the basis and extensions, as required. We are going to go back to some simple and come forward to the modern, complicated economy. Why? My long chain of ancestors (inherited via Prof. Lucio Arteaga) is one motivation.

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