Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Trying times

So, we are back to management by the seat-of-the-pants, again. That is, from the point of view of economics. On the last downturn, Ben was very creative, leaving us things unreckoned with still with his QE and like.

However, this time, we have a real emergency on hand. The medical part of the economy is being expected to pick up the pieces. That is, almost work miracles with limited resources. They and other essential workers are free to go to work. And, we know, that's not any type of vacation.

While the rest of us cool our heels. I have been busy. We are at the 1st day of the 5th week where I am with no known date for when we might be free. But, even that freedom will have new costs associated with it. The huge one is that testing is only of the time. Walk out the door, and one might get exposed, again.

So, these are a few thoughts to be discussed, further.
  • What portends this for that loosey-goosey life associated with globalization? Well, we have mentioned the obvious diminishing of quality (yes, a litany here in this blog a few places). That was seen long ago. They were cutting supply chains, too closely. And, a number of others things were wrong. So, we'll go back over the last ten years and review. 
  • Oh yes, this time, it's different. Well, perhaps not. As, those last two downturns were related to various types of mischief. This is, too, in the sense of being obtuse to the max. So much to discuss with this topic. 
  • One of them? The internet. Some one noted that the drop of that dream of free modes might have been a good thing given the turmoils associated with the huge demands now being seen. Oh yes, a new world, that's for sure. Again, we noted that we need structure on the internet. Lots to discuss. That discourse will be both technical and from the proper overview. 
  • ... 
Savers are still being flayed. The Fed guy saw to that. For what? The ca-pital-sino can continue to fill pockets of the rich while the hapless suffer and distract us from the real work? As well, We are spending money, supposedly backed by debt. Gosh. Forever debt? Who is going to pay for all of this largess going on? Besides, before now, students were up to their necks in debt, businesses were playing fancy and free with taking on debt, the ca-pital-sino was saying, our bank is open, suckers, come in and use your debt to play silly games. Need I go on?

Remarks: Modified: 04/22/2020

04/22/2020 --

Thursday, March 12, 2020

New day

We used that concept before, in another whole context. But, it was in 2008 (and in 2012). We have that, again. That is, we're at 2020 and no better off than before. That is the economy with respect to some mode of stability.

So today, we saw a large drop after a few others. This? Despite, the FED meddling. Yes, they took the little pittance away from we, the savers. A lingering story just awaiting a closer look.

Notice something about this blog? It was fairly consistently active until 2015. What happened then? Quora is what happened. I started there in July. By October, I wrote about the First Quarter at Quora. The focus there is broader as is the whole of the dynamic. Either you like it, or you do not. For me, it has been an interesting journey which can be described further. Relates to technology and to how we get hype (say AI?).

Same goes for finance and economics. So, we're back to this as the time is right.

Remarks: Modified: 03/12/2020

03/12/2020 -- On Quora, 1st use of the co-link: The NY Fed is pumping trillions into the Stock Market. How does this benefit Americans?; 2nd use of the co-link: The other day Larry Kudlow claimed that America had tried helicopter money before and it didn't work - what was he referring to and are we sure it wouldn't work in the current situation we're in?

Friday, January 3, 2020

Summary, 2019

This year, we had the 737 Max in the spotlight. So many business themes relate to that. We'll be back.

List of 2019 posts.

Remarks: Modified: 01/03/2020

01/03/2020 --

Friday, August 2, 2019

Muddled mess

Moral: Wherein we finally see the world's platter filling or not; same thing as when we started back in 2009. A new set of nuances to ponder is all.

Two days ago, the Fed lowered the discount rate (interest). By a quarter point, as they say. Which isn't much, but we have been creeping along with that type of raise now for a little bit. After all, we're not at zero any more, but we're also not near the 5.25% (whatever) that was there when Ben started his cuts back in the aughts. He left, and Janet eventually started the upswing.

She never got the tape tantrum. I guess energy runs down after a while. But, we're seeing addicts act up, again. Some say that the Fed has been administering to the patient (IV wise) and finally was getting to toward release. One might say that the training wheels were being taken off the economy. Gosh, late teenagers needing training wheels? What a sight.

Funny thing? Well, the Fed met on Weds, and things (say, the DOW) wobbled up til then and went down right after. It was said (don't you love this little daily - hourly? - rationalizations?) that the 'investors' (gamblers?) we trying to get right with the news. Whatever it is, there is always some type of assessment.

Too, they talk to the 401Kers. Ah, your pot went up or down, blah blah.

Well, there are other factors which we'll not mention now. But, the Fed guy said, essentially, don't get used to this little bit of continuing largess. It's not a series. A mini-tantrum ensued? Wouldn't you think? But, the DOW started up on Thursday then went down. And is down today.

One can expect all weekend, oh, people's poor retirement, it was clobbered this week. As if. The real value was extracted long ago. Funny numbers do not capital make, but we have a long row to hoe there. Continuation of the message from the start in 2009.

Remarks: Modified: 08/02/2019

08/02/2019 --

Monday, February 18, 2019

Psychology redone

Moral: Wherein we start over with a newer view and basis.

I just recently came across evolutionary psychiatry through a book review in the WSJ. There will be more on the book, later, however I went to look at the field which is comparatively new. Except, Darwin, himself, suggested that this realization would occur.

So, on a search, I find more books and blogs. One blog started five years ago. The book from which I took this image was published in 2012. So, we're not far behind.

The first chapter was business. Interesting. BTW, this book mentions Freud, briefly, and ignores Jung. Lots of things to look at.

Applied Evolutionary Psychology
Note, credit crunch? Yes, that got my attention. So, we'll be back to this study of the Fed and its ways and means. Lots has happened to review.

Remarks: Modified: 02/18/2019

02/18/2019 --

Monday, December 31, 2018

Summary, 2018

Moral: Wherein we show most-read posts.

Prior years:  2009201020112012201320142015, 2016, 2017 (missing).

Remarks: Modified: 12/30/2018

12/30/2018 --

Monday, December 24, 2018

What goes up ...

Moral: The markets (ca-pital-sino) seem to be in a free fall. People are asking why. Example: The US is now officially in a bear market and the Dow had its worst week in a decade. Since President Trump took credit for the good economy, will he accept any responsibility if we go into recession? Of course, there is a political flavor.

Look, over a year ago. Expectation of unwinding. Tantrums are not mature.

So, teaching opportunity? Let's look at a few details that will be germane to the analysis that will come ex post facto. These are implied in the answer to the above question. All of this has been covered here, from the beginning. As we proceed, we'll look back at our on-time analysis over the period since Ben turned on the spigot, Janet kept it on, and there was some recent closing off. That a factor? Sure. But, ETFs (and their ilk of gaming) are to boot. Plus, many other things, especially technology.
  • The whole mechanism, take the DOW, inflates as the thing goes up. Puffery. On the downturn, it turns the other way and squashes real quickly. 
  • The FED wanted people to run after the risky. They flayed the reasonable. Who are those? The savers. I have it all here, folks, including things not written yet. 
  • On the political, jaw boning (twitting, whatever) has an influence. That would be 'in the spirit' of the thing. So, bull (crap?) to bear (claws)? Good thing that nature has balance. We sure like to get our little selves way out of any rational balance, it seems. 
  • Mathematics and computing? Being misused. I said that from the beginning. Hence, one major focus has been truth engineering (will be, too). 
So much more. This is a brief statement of direction and intent. 

Remarks:  Modified: 12/24/2018

12/24/2018 --