Friday, August 2, 2019

Muddled mess

Moral: Wherein we finally see the world's platter filling or not; same thing as when we started back in 2009. A new set of nuances to ponder is all.

Two days ago, the Fed lowered the discount rate (interest). By a quarter point, as they say. Which isn't much, but we have been creeping along with that type of raise now for a little bit. After all, we're not at zero any more, but we're also not near the 5.25% (whatever) that was there when Ben started his cuts back in the aughts. He left, and Janet eventually started the upswing.

She never got the tape tantrum. I guess energy runs down after a while. But, we're seeing addicts act up, again. Some say that the Fed has been administering to the patient (IV wise) and finally was getting to toward release. One might say that the training wheels were being taken off the economy. Gosh, late teenagers needing training wheels? What a sight.

Funny thing? Well, the Fed met on Weds, and things (say, the DOW) wobbled up til then and went down right after. It was said (don't you love this little daily - hourly? - rationalizations?) that the 'investors' (gamblers?) we trying to get right with the news. Whatever it is, there is always some type of assessment.

Too, they talk to the 401Kers. Ah, your pot went up or down, blah blah.

Well, there are other factors which we'll not mention now. But, the Fed guy said, essentially, don't get used to this little bit of continuing largess. It's not a series. A mini-tantrum ensued? Wouldn't you think? But, the DOW started up on Thursday then went down. And is down today.

One can expect all weekend, oh, people's poor retirement, it was clobbered this week. As if. The real value was extracted long ago. Funny numbers do not capital make, but we have a long row to hoe there. Continuation of the message from the start in 2009.

Remarks: Modified: 08/02/2019

08/02/2019 --

Monday, February 18, 2019

Psychology redone

Moral: Wherein we start over with a newer view and basis.

I just recently came across evolutionary psychiatry through a book review in the WSJ. There will be more on the book, later, however I went to look at the field which is comparatively new. Except, Darwin, himself, suggested that this realization would occur.

So, on a search, I find more books and blogs. One blog started five years ago. The book from which I took this image was published in 2012. So, we're not far behind.

The first chapter was business. Interesting. BTW, this book mentions Freud, briefly, and ignores Jung. Lots of things to look at.

Applied Evolutionary Psychology
Note, credit crunch? Yes, that got my attention. So, we'll be back to this study of the Fed and its ways and means. Lots has happened to review.

Remarks: Modified: 02/18/2019

02/18/2019 --

Monday, December 31, 2018

Summary, 2018

Moral: Wherein we show most-read posts.

Prior years:  2009201020112012201320142015, 2016, 2017 (missing).

Remarks: Modified: 12/30/2018

12/30/2018 --

Monday, December 24, 2018

What goes up ...

Moral: The markets (ca-pital-sino) seem to be in a free fall. People are asking why. Example: The US is now officially in a bear market and the Dow had its worst week in a decade. Since President Trump took credit for the good economy, will he accept any responsibility if we go into recession? Of course, there is a political flavor.

Look, over a year ago. Expectation of unwinding. Tantrums are not mature.

So, teaching opportunity? Let's look at a few details that will be germane to the analysis that will come ex post facto. These are implied in the answer to the above question. All of this has been covered here, from the beginning. As we proceed, we'll look back at our on-time analysis over the period since Ben turned on the spigot, Janet kept it on, and there was some recent closing off. That a factor? Sure. But, ETFs (and their ilk of gaming) are to boot. Plus, many other things, especially technology.
  • The whole mechanism, take the DOW, inflates as the thing goes up. Puffery. On the downturn, it turns the other way and squashes real quickly. 
  • The FED wanted people to run after the risky. They flayed the reasonable. Who are those? The savers. I have it all here, folks, including things not written yet. 
  • On the political, jaw boning (twitting, whatever) has an influence. That would be 'in the spirit' of the thing. So, bull (crap?) to bear (claws)? Good thing that nature has balance. We sure like to get our little selves way out of any rational balance, it seems. 
  • Mathematics and computing? Being misused. I said that from the beginning. Hence, one major focus has been truth engineering (will be, too). 
So much more. This is a brief statement of direction and intent. 

Remarks:  Modified: 12/24/2018

12/24/2018 --

Update

Moral: Wherein we start to look anew, at the issues.

So, we're past what is called the mid-term (something like that) election. And, the blues took the House from the reds. That ought to dampen some of the whining. We will see. The Fed has started to quit the flaying of the savers. Some savings rates are up to 2% and more.

We never whined here. No, it has always been righteous indignation (;>). Like the prophet of old, we could not see much but thing going crazy.

However, now is the time for reasonable folks to step forward, and we intend to do so.

Of late, our creative juices have been spent on two avenues: Thomas Gardner Society, Inc. site and blog; Quora, the indescribable, so to speak.

Remarks:  Modified: 12/24/2018

12/24/2018 -- Example Quora question: What goes up ...

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

The Great Unwinding

Moral: Wherein we look at the Fed's departure. Hah.

Long ago, we asked Ben to unwind. The first request was 2009. Then, 2012 seemed like a good time.

Then, we had the taper tantrum. Poor Ben, had to leave it to Janet. Who has only did little changes, so far.

BTW, 'Great Unwinding' is a headline in the WSJ for today (09/19/2017).

So, we are at some point in time that was anticipated long ago. Much ado about nothing?

Remarks:  Modified: 09/19/2017

09/19/2017 --

Monday, July 31, 2017

Billow and/or bubble

Moral: Wherein we look at the billowing markets.

Billow? As in, clouds fluffing and puffing up. BTW, has the Fed gone to the Tetons, yet, where the clouds will wafer up from Colorado's myriad of smoking joints?

The Dow is close to 22K. And, that is not seen as a bubble?

Hey, let's get it back to 12K.

At least, the 4T balance sheet gets news. Yes, it's to be trimmed, This time, there was no taper tantrum. Not as yet, anyway.

Meanwhile, savers, in come cases, are getting a penny on the dollar. Isn't that nice?

Remarks: Modified: 07/31/2017

07/31/2017 --