tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32421129721653042722024-03-14T06:23:48.576+00:00FEDaeratedAbout things economicAJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.comBlogger332125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-89673398155254903832024-03-13T22:50:00.003+00:002024-03-13T22:54:15.205+00:00Dee W Hock<p><b>Moral:</b> Look at a non-capitalist banker. </p><p>Just ran into this guy's work. Will tell the tale of that odyssey at some point.</p><p>This is a quote by him on X (formerly, twitville).</p><p> <a href="https://twitter.com/deewhock/status/1367548040349839361">On Universities</a> </p><p>He started Visa and was an inspiration for crypto and blockchain.</p><p>So, we’ll see what this is about. Dee died in 2022. </p><p>Review by <a href="https://practicalpolymath.substack.com/p/dee-hock-the-anti-capitalist-banker">The Practical Polymath</a>. </p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 03</i><i>/13/2024</i></p><p>03/13/2024 -- </p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-35126626342965261122024-01-01T21:04:00.002+00:002024-01-01T21:08:52.284+00:00New Year, 2024<p><b>Moral:</b> Another year. Lots to do. </p><p>---</p><p>Notice our decline in activity here when we move to Quora (2015). </p><p>Here is a list of posts. </p><p>We will be active in 2024. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFge57yXzsEUOxUs5y1xFV8tipBoNyJXp9CMLTup3pI4CCcMGgMZ1eOvtDvO-luL23oUoQccFo7j72UtLy_E8TnZ-_kXePKYB2mL33JCwjFIS3E0QJEaUDI0P2CNl-lF-K-qJ9OzcxCckjzisr_acj4AOHgmnyWGaLKkZCL_GuOkfU9KaRpXntOfgQBLw/s448/BlogPostsFTE7.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="391" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFge57yXzsEUOxUs5y1xFV8tipBoNyJXp9CMLTup3pI4CCcMGgMZ1eOvtDvO-luL23oUoQccFo7j72UtLy_E8TnZ-_kXePKYB2mL33JCwjFIS3E0QJEaUDI0P2CNl-lF-K-qJ9OzcxCckjzisr_acj4AOHgmnyWGaLKkZCL_GuOkfU9KaRpXntOfgQBLw/s320/BlogPostsFTE7.jpg" width="279" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 01</i><i>/01/2024</i></p><p><i><br /></i></p><p></p><p>01/01/2024 -- </p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-61750687786497523062023-08-24T01:10:00.002+01:002023-08-24T01:43:52.355+01:00Alchemy lives<p><b>Moral:</b> Machine learning's recent splash brings Herbert L. Dreyfus back to the conversation. Let's look at that. </p><p>---</p><p>I first heard of Dreyfus while listening to a discussion about artificial intelligence and databases at a conference that was sponsored by the "very large-database" group. The meeting was in the 1980s and was held at Kyoto, Japan. The reactions were varied, but one could see the positions being taken. He didn't seem to have many friends there defending him. </p><p>Okay, leap forward. Looking further, I agreed with the guy. However, at the time, my focus was on implementation of algorithms for knowledge based systems (and, later, knowledge based engineering modes) that were highly effective in providing solutons that mattered. Needless to say, subsequent work involved a broader scope for computing that suggested its potential. </p><p>Ubiquity? The concept was not unknown. However, the release of IP changed the whole tone. That was in the mid-1990s. Since then, we have had several cycles of boom and bust. The first one? Go look up the tech bust of 1999/2000 to read about one. </p><p>There were others before and after 2000. A couple of the ones before related to artificial intelligence. This post provides a brief summary of Dreyfus's involvement in the discussions. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li> <a href="https://thomasgardnerofsalem.blogspot.com/2023/08/alchemy-and-ai.html">Alchemy and AI</a> </li></ul><div>Now, the theme of this post. Here is a little blurb from Bard (Google's xNN/LLM) with respect to Dreyfus's importance. </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Business is often seen as a way to make money, and in some cases, this can lead to people trying to get something for nothing. For example, some businesses may engage in deceptive or fraudulent practices in order to make a profit.</li></ul></div><div>Oh, was this prompted? Sure. The idea was to tell it that the ca-pital-sino (coined in this blog in a post on <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2010/01/shell-games.html">Tuesday, 26 Jan 2010</a> - Shell games) deals specifically with this issue. </div><div><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 08</i><i>/23/2023</i></p><p></p><p>08/23/2023 -- </p></div><p></p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-82150115200491665102023-03-23T15:00:00.005+00:002023-03-27T02:05:59.236+01:00What comes around <p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we declare that our doors, once again, are open for business. </p><p>Two major incidents happened. There were more. These are sufficient. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10916-023-01925-4#ref-CR14">ChatGPT</a> - ah, what idiocy. We'll weigh in, deeply. One theme will be Silly Valley and its dumb experimenting on us, who are we, the poor little folks. Wise up, guys and gals. </li><li><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-U8iZOfooibM/Ua_NgEMU9DI/AAAAAAAAA9c/vLeQw_EUQtw/s200/taper.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="155" data-original-width="200" height="155" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-U8iZOfooibM/Ua_NgEMU9DI/AAAAAAAAA9c/vLeQw_EUQtw/s200/taper.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ben and <br />the taper</td></tr></tbody></table>Fed grew some cojones and we're back to 18 Sep 2007. Oh gosh, we have two other blogs on the idiocy that took place the past decades and one-half. </li></ul><div>This will be fun. For now, a link to the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/">Forbes History</a> of the rate. <br /></div><div><br /></div><div>You know, it's been tedious watching this stuff from afar. And, feeling the impacts of wrong decisions even from a distance. Talk about entanglement? Ah, yes, kept the faith. Now, look for the old posts to be resurrected and updated. </div><p></p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 03</i><i>/26/2023</i></p><p></p><p>03/23/2023 -- Added an image from this post: <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2013/06/taper.html">Ben and the taper</a> (from 2013). He threatened to taper. The addicts to the ca-pital-sino rebelled. Back and forth. Did he taper? Nope. Several times. Until Janet came to be, there was no challenge to addicts. You hear them, even now. </p><p>03/26/2023 -- The Tablet Magazine has a good article: <a href="https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-bank-crisis-goes-nuclear">How the Bank Collapse Goes Nuclear</a>. </p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-13547926219271670472022-12-30T21:07:00.004+00:002023-03-23T14:55:17.099+00:002009 until now<p> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we do a quick recap. </p><p>This blog started in order in 2009 which was about when the last recession was over. The topic tells it all; we watched the Fed's reaction to the downturn. And, were posting in the 7'oops7 and Truth Engineering blogs. But, that was extraneous to those two topics. We needed something financial. </p><p>Two motivations? One deals with MIT and their clever development of the concept of financial engineering. I ask them, engineers mostly. What science is behind this bit of shenanigans? Okay, 2009, that was the timeframe. Now, messes. Even the supposed financial bots are supposed to be smarter than MIT folks (well, perhaps we ought to start there; they never had claim to all of intelligence). Now, another motivation (there are several more, btw)? As the financial stuff unraveled, the Fed seemed to react in an old mode and then just capitulated to those who push the ca-pital-sino. Oh yes. As I said, in 2009, it'll be worse the next time. We have not seen this yet, but people who consider these matters worry. </p><p>In the meantime, follow discussion at <a href="https://www.quora.com/profile/John-M-Switlik">Quora</a>. It has been at Quora where most of our attention has been given and most of our energies spent since 2015</p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 03</i><i>/23/2023</i></p><p></p><p>12/30/2022 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-70954810713594785572022-01-01T00:19:00.004+00:002022-01-01T00:19:45.455+00:00Grand Challenge<p> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we explore a Grand Challenge. </p><p>This is cursory as we have just become aware of a video that provides an important viewpoint. See the "<a href="http://truthengineering.blogspot.com/2021/12/grand-challenge.html">Grand Challenge</a>" post at the TruthEngineering blog for details and for further work on the subject. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi23Qw4HHwjfWRnmNyuHzX9JHJ2RjAC84r9Fjhu6Jo_94TuGJacsPb319qemZt7rgn3B281_P8jW83w5HY69ejcGP2Y5HrpTiVW4LKbOEM6tT8FjIWw-gY8saSTH-BMrTbSllH2t6CF0HWrdltyls_GSiGI72s9ZTKRjb8sGe3h41TViSjpWY1LQ0JP=s634" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="634" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi23Qw4HHwjfWRnmNyuHzX9JHJ2RjAC84r9Fjhu6Jo_94TuGJacsPb319qemZt7rgn3B281_P8jW83w5HY69ejcGP2Y5HrpTiVW4LKbOEM6tT8FjIWw-gY8saSTH-BMrTbSllH2t6CF0HWrdltyls_GSiGI72s9ZTKRjb8sGe3h41TViSjpWY1LQ0JP=s320" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbrbNI9FbzQ&t=2492s">FutureLaw presentation</a><br />Stanford Law School </td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 12/31/2021</i></p><p></p><p>12/31/2021 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-84245101752766772452021-11-13T12:05:00.004+00:002021-11-13T12:10:44.434+00:00AIn't<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we note what could be our logo and some of its implications. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">AI</span></b>n't? Means what? </p><p>Notice, AI is bold. Usual meaning. Though, there are many; of late, something called DL ('deep' learning) has taken hold on the imagination. Ain't? Grammar police baiting? </p><p>This post is a reminder of important topics to be discussed in the future. </p><p>Now future? Let's say, the one being touted by Peter Schiff (Dr. Doom) who has been even more vocal of late about the policies to ruin. I only listened to a minute's worth. </p><p>Has anyone noted that people yak, others listen (or pretend to)? Have you sat through a video of a mathematical proof? Sure, some semblance. </p><p>The point is that reading/writing is how deep (the real sense, not the wannabe of DL) knowledge gets conveyed across generations. </p><p>Now, deep? The whole phenomenal events related to grokking is an example. People pursue this by several means, one of which is finding a guru. </p><p>Why mention this? Not only do we have a false AI, robotics is becoming seen as an economic savior. You realize that some of the AI folks bragged about the fake faces being generated by their systems, none of which have any link to something real? </p><p>Robotics? The past year plus, many more companies have sought to use these. Mostly, they do some task that can be harmful for humans (Bezos types of actions). But, call a company. Chances are that you deal with a bot of some sort. </p><p>It's irritating for many reasons. Some companies have made it impossible to talk a person. And, chat? Bots, to boot.</p><p>Back to Peter. We're getting back into a regular posting mode. After all, this blog came from one that started in 2007 for reasons of writing of business silliness, some of it was motivated by stupidity while there were other things that are more malfeasance in nature. </p><p>So, AI can be used as a metaphor. It really is a type of 'umbrella' notion. Whereas in reality? We are talking advanced mathematics abetted by computing. And, there we can be more scientifically oriented than has been tried in the past. </p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 11/13/2021</i></p><p></p><p>11/13/2021 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-20637028187265528632021-09-18T18:04:00.002+01:002021-11-13T12:09:10.381+00:00Bezoism<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we point to needed discussions. </p><p>A neologism has hit the news: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-way-amazon-uses-tech-to-squeeze-performance-out-of-workers-deserves-its-own-name-bezosism-11631332821">Bezoism</a>. I was late getting to a recent WSJ weekend edition where the article was covered. However, it is old as Bezos, himself, uses it (<a href="https://dudeperf3ct.github.io/sensei/jeff-bezos/">blog on GitHub</a>). Notice, the whole of the <a href="https://dudeperf3ct.github.io/about/">Deep Learning paradigm's offerings</a> where we can, at last, get real about how technology is ruining our lives. Bezos ought to be thanked for playing his role which we can analysis (way more than 'deep' learning every could). </p><p>Definition found at another blog: </p><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2021/09/managerial-bezoism-basis-for-how-amazon.html">Managerial "Bezos-ism"</a>: The Basis For How Amazon Wrings Productivity From Workers - And the Template Is Spreading</p></blockquote><p>Wait, this is new: <a href="https://moundsville.org/2021/09/16/arriving-today-how-global-logistics-are-building-the-modern-world-and-explain-amazon-and-mcmansions/">Arriving today</a>. </p><p>Gosh, for me, this is another <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2015/05/jfn-jr.html">Rip Van Wrinkle</a> thing. These have always been due to some shenanigans of business, usually related to financial mischief. </p><p>Disclosure: Never bought anything via Amazon. Skirt around their site when on the web as much as I can. Have looked at a page or two with respect to ratings of products. Mostly wondered what motivated this form of mischief which is not sustainable and is so much a poster boy for how things ought not be. </p><p></p><p><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 11/13/2021</i></p><p></p><p>11/13/2021 -- Forgot the Moral tag. </p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-49652589558307263422021-01-02T15:12:00.004+00:002021-01-02T15:13:11.264+00:00MIT Sloan<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we start the new year by looking to Boston (well, Cambridge). </p><p>They gave us a gift: <a href="https://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2021/1/249448-boeings-737-max/fulltext">737MAX: A Failure of Management, not just Technology</a>. You know, I've waited 15 years for this. </p><p>FEDaerated came out of watching the FED and the economy using Boeing as a basis given the breadth of its coverage, especially dealing with technology. </p><p>We will be going into how the computer is the main source for the confusion that we see. Another? SciFi and its addling of the human brain. </p><div><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 01/02/2021</i></div><p></p><p>01/02/2021 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-76312717004082503612020-12-29T20:10:00.004+00:002020-12-29T20:10:48.459+00:002020 begone<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we muse about the tomorrows. </p><div>Lots of themes pending. The U.S. FED just pulled out all stops and placed us in unknown territory that's even more remote than where Ben/Janet left us. Which is okay, as things will pull out. Will we learn the necessary lessons?</div><div><br /></div><div>So, with the proverbial punt down the road, we'll let the year end. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 12/29/2020</i></div><p></p><p>12/29/2020 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-54914327515458131852020-10-27T18:16:00.004+00:002020-10-27T18:27:19.105+00:00Status, again<div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we point to the fact of not being lazy. </div><div><br /></div><div>This theme is central to about all the the world of business does. However, we have even more going on than the last go-around (2008). </div><p>For now, here are pointers to current work is being done:</p><p></p><ul><li><a href="https://www.quora.com/profile/John-M-Switlik">Quora</a> - started here in July of 2015. The decline in posting at blogs is associated with this move which has been very interesting in its effects. Quora covers the bases. There have been several answers given that pertain to this subject. </li><li><a href="https://tgsoc.org/">Thomas Gardner Society, Inc.</a> - what is gets more attention is our <a href="https://thomasgardnerofsalem.blogspot.com/">blog</a> which has been in action during a decade of work in which we are always learning. This focus is on the 400 years of American history including the century plus that preceded the Revolution. </li><li><a href="https://jmswtlk.github.io/GitHub-ing/">GitHub</a> - where the technical mind can get refreshed. Might have a code focus but is used, too, for managing complex data systems. </li><li>Others - </li></ul><p></p><p></p><p> <b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 10/27/2020</i></p><p></p><p>10/27/2020 --</p>AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-12672793808069792922020-04-22T19:31:00.002+01:002020-10-27T18:23:59.275+00:00Trying times<div><div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we see the world for what it is. </div><div><br /></div></div>So, we are back to management by the seat-of-the-pants, again. That is, from the point of view of economics. On the last downturn, Ben was very creative, leaving us things unreckoned with still with his QE and like.<br />
<br />
However, this time, we have a real emergency on hand. The medical part of the economy is being expected to pick up the pieces. That is, almost work miracles with limited resources. They and other essential workers are free to go to work. And, we know, that's not any type of vacation.<br />
<br />
While the rest of us cool our heels. I have been busy. We are at the 1st day of the 5th week where I am with no known date for when we might be free. But, even that freedom will have new costs associated with it. The huge one is that testing is only of the time. Walk out the door, and one might get exposed, again.<br />
<br />
So, these are a few thoughts to be discussed, further.<br />
<ul>
<li>What portends this for that loosey-goosey life associated with globalization? Well, we have mentioned the obvious diminishing of quality (yes, a litany here in this blog a few places). That was seen long ago. They were cutting supply chains, too closely. And, a number of others things were wrong. So, we'll go back over the last ten years and review. </li>
<li>Oh yes, this time, it's different. Well, perhaps not. As, those last two downturns were related to various types of mischief. This is, too, in the sense of being obtuse to the max. So much to discuss with this topic. </li>
<li>One of them? The internet. Some one noted that the drop of that dream of free modes might have been a good thing given the turmoils associated with the huge demands now being seen. Oh yes, a new world, that's for sure. Again, we noted that we need structure on the internet. Lots to discuss. That discourse will be both technical and from the proper overview. </li>
<li>... </li>
</ul>
Savers are still being flayed. The Fed guy saw to that. For what? The ca-pital-sino can continue to fill pockets of the rich while the hapless suffer and distract us from the real work? As well, We are spending money, supposedly backed by debt. Gosh. Forever debt? Who is going to pay for all of this largess going on? Besides, before now, students were up to their necks in debt, businesses were playing fancy and free with taking on debt, the ca-pital-sino was saying, our bank is open, suckers, come in and use your debt to play silly games. Need I go on?<br />
<br />
<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 10/27/2020</i><br />
<br />10/27/2020 -- Trying to recover our moral. AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-398961434265428452020-03-12T23:25:00.001+00:002020-10-27T18:23:08.599+00:00New day<div><div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we look at the world while it turns. </div><div><br /></div></div>We used that concept before, in another whole context. But, it was in 2008 (and in 2012). We have that, again. That is, we're at 2020 and no better off than before. That is the economy with respect to some mode of stability.<br />
<br />
So today, we saw a large drop after a few others. This? Despite, the FED meddling. Yes, they took the little pittance away from we, the savers. A lingering story just awaiting a closer look.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YABAeplOzhE/TUgrTVh8PoI/AAAAAAAAAIY/mVestSTSeAgVK91EIky_W_6g1IBghSSlACPcBGAYYCw/s1600/BigBenActionFigure.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="186" data-original-width="297" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YABAeplOzhE/TUgrTVh8PoI/AAAAAAAAAIY/mVestSTSeAgVK91EIky_W_6g1IBghSSlACPcBGAYYCw/s1600/BigBenActionFigure.jpg" /></a>Notice something about this blog? It was fairly consistently active until 2015. What happened then? Quora is what happened. I started there in July. By October, I wrote about the <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2015/10/quora-quarter.html">First Quarter at Quora</a>. The focus there is broader as is the whole of the dynamic. Either you like it, or you do not. For me, it has been an interesting journey which can be described further. Relates to technology and to how we get hype (say AI?).<br />
<br />
Same goes for finance and economics. So, we're back to this as the time is right.<br />
<br />
<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 10/27/2020</i><br />
<br />
03/12/2020 -- On Quora, 1st use of the co-link: <a href="https://www.quora.com/The-NY-Fed-is-pumping-trillions-into-the-Stock-Market-How-does-this-benefit-Americans/answer/John-M-Switlik">The NY Fed is pumping trillions into the Stock Market. How does this benefit Americans?</a>; 2nd use of the co-link: <a href="https://www.quora.com/The-other-day-Larry-Kudlow-claimed-that-America-had-tried-helicopter-money-before-and-it-didnt-work-what-was-he-referring-to-and-are-we-sure-it-wouldnt-work-in-the-current-situation-were-in/answer/John-M-Switlik">The other day Larry Kudlow claimed that America had tried helicopter money before and it didn't work - what was he referring to and are we sure it wouldn't work in the current situation we're in?</a><br />
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br /></div><div>10/27/2020 -- Trying to recover our moral. </div>
AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-5922390543192453812020-01-03T23:34:00.002+00:002020-10-27T18:22:00.080+00:00Summary, 2019<div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we gloss over matters. </div><div><br /></div>This year, we had the 737 Max in the spotlight. So many business themes relate to that. We'll be back.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2019/">List of 2019 posts</a>.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 10/27/2020</i><br />
<br />10/27/2020 -- Try to recover our moral. <br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-50201123300419708022019-08-02T19:08:00.002+01:002019-08-02T19:13:23.274+01:00Muddled mess<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we finally see the world's platter filling or not; same thing as when we <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2009/08/for-starters.html">started back</a> in 2009. A new set of nuances to ponder is all.<br />
<br />
Two days ago, the Fed lowered the discount rate (interest). By a quarter point, as they say. Which isn't much, but we have been creeping along with that type of raise now for a little bit. After all, we're not at zero any more, but we're also not near the 5.25% (whatever) that was there when Ben started his cuts back in the aughts. He left, and Janet eventually started the upswing.<br />
<br />
She never got the tape tantrum. I guess energy runs down after a while. But, we're seeing addicts act up, again. Some say that the Fed has been administering to the patient (IV wise) and finally was getting to toward release. One might say that the training wheels were being taken off the economy. Gosh, late teenagers needing training wheels? What a sight.<br />
<br />
Funny thing? Well, the Fed met on Weds, and things (say, the DOW) wobbled up til then and went down right after. It was said (don't you love this little daily - hourly? - rationalizations?) that the 'investors' (gamblers?) we trying to get right with the news. Whatever it is, there is always some type of assessment.<br />
<br />
Too, they talk to the 401Kers. Ah, your pot went up or down, blah blah.<br />
<br />
Well, there are other factors which we'll not mention now. But, the Fed guy said, essentially, don't get used to this little bit of continuing largess. It's not a series. A mini-tantrum ensued? Wouldn't you think? But, the DOW started up on Thursday then went down. And is down today.<br />
<br />
One can expect all weekend, oh, people's poor retirement, it was clobbered this week. As if. The real value was extracted long ago. Funny numbers do not capital make, but we have a long row to hoe there. Continuation of the message from the start in 2009.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 08/02/2019</i></div>
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08/02/2019 --</div>
AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-41278331707110308292019-02-18T13:44:00.000+00:002019-02-18T13:44:16.575+00:00Psychology redone<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we start over with a newer view and basis.<br />
<br />
I just recently came across evolutionary psychiatry through a book review in the WSJ. There will be more on the book, later, however I went to look at the field which is comparatively new. Except, Darwin, himself, suggested that this realization would occur.<br />
<br />
So, on a search, I find more books and blogs. One blog started five years ago. The book from which I took this image was published in 2012. So, we're not far behind.<br />
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The first chapter was business. Interesting. BTW, this book mentions Freud, briefly, and ignores Jung. Lots of things to look at.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OP2SZKoDOoI/XGq2R8FIe8I/AAAAAAAAIgc/SVgpVYodwPksFEuCwZ9YCM95_bNJ0LnZQCLcBGAs/s1600/Credit%2Bcrunch%2Band%2Bevolutionary%2Bpsychology.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="674" height="208" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OP2SZKoDOoI/XGq2R8FIe8I/AAAAAAAAIgc/SVgpVYodwPksFEuCwZ9YCM95_bNJ0LnZQCLcBGAs/s320/Credit%2Bcrunch%2Band%2Bevolutionary%2Bpsychology.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=I20uPfEjsNQC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=jung&f=false">Applied Evolutionary Psychology</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Note, credit crunch? Yes, that got my attention. So, we'll be back to this study of the Fed and its ways and means. Lots has happened to review.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 02/18/2019</i></div>
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02/18/2019 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-14123015486952637562018-12-31T01:09:00.001+00:002018-12-31T01:10:16.572+00:00Summary, 2018<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we show most-read posts.<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IjNn3dl_SWU/XClsCPI_p3I/AAAAAAAAIdo/133vpCgk3vw9mRsOoaOKNnicgz-DRXyeACLcBGAs/s1600/top%2B5%2Bfedaerated%2B2018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="544" height="196" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IjNn3dl_SWU/XClsCPI_p3I/AAAAAAAAIdo/133vpCgk3vw9mRsOoaOKNnicgz-DRXyeACLcBGAs/s320/top%2B5%2Bfedaerated%2B2018.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Prior years: <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2009/12/year-end-recap_31.html">2009</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2011/01/2nd-december.html">2010</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2011/12/posts-of-interest-2011.html">2011</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2012/12/summary-2012.html">2012</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2013/12/summary-2013.html">2013</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2014/12/summary-2014.html">2014</a>, <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2016/01/summary-2015.html">2015</a>, <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2016/12/summary-2016.html">2016</a>, 2017 (missing).<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 12/30/2018</i></div>
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12/30/2018 --</div>
AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-61034383202328356922018-12-24T14:57:00.000+00:002018-12-24T15:06:07.794+00:00What goes up ... <b>Moral:</b> The markets (ca-pital-sino) seem to be in a free fall. People are asking why. Example: <a href="https://www.quora.com/The-US-is-now-officially-in-a-bear-market-and-the-Dow-had-its-worst-week-in-a-decade-Since-President-Trump-took-credit-for-the-good-economy-will-he-accept-any-responsibility-if-we-go-into-recession/answer/John-M-Switlik">The US is now officially in a bear market and the Dow had its worst week in a decade. Since President Trump took credit for the good economy, will he accept any responsibility if we go into recession?</a> Of course, there is a <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2018/12/update.html">political flavor</a>.<br />
<br />
Look, over a year ago. <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-great-unwinding.html">Expectation of unwinding</a>. Tantrums are not mature.<br />
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So, teaching opportunity? Let's look at a few details that will be germane to the analysis that will come ex post facto. These are implied in the answer to the above question. All of this has been covered here, from the beginning. As we proceed, we'll look back at our on-time analysis over the period since Ben turned on the spigot, Janet kept it on, and there was some recent closing off. That a factor? Sure. But, ETFs (and their ilk of gaming) are to boot. Plus, many other things, especially technology.<br />
<ul>
<li>The whole mechanism, take the DOW, inflates as the thing goes up. Puffery. On the downturn, it turns the other way and squashes real quickly. </li>
<li>The FED wanted people to run after the risky. They flayed the reasonable. Who are those? The savers. I have it all here, folks, including things not written yet. </li>
<li>On the political, jaw boning (twitting, whatever) has an influence. That would be 'in the spirit' of the thing. So, bull (crap?) to bear (claws)? Good thing that nature has balance. We sure like to get our little selves way out of any rational balance, it seems. </li>
<li>Mathematics and computing? Being misused. I said that from the beginning. Hence, one major focus has been truth engineering (will be, too). </li>
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So much more. This is a brief statement of direction and intent. </div>
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 12/24/2018</i><br />
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12/24/2018 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-62458869395462959932018-12-24T14:48:00.002+00:002018-12-24T15:05:19.168+00:00Update<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we start to look anew, at the issues.<br />
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So, we're past what is called the mid-term (something like that) election. And, the blues took the House from the reds. That ought to dampen some of the whining. We will see. The Fed has started to quit the flaying of the savers. Some savings rates are up to 2% and more.<br />
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We never whined here. No, it has always been righteous indignation (;>). Like the prophet of old, we could not see much but thing going crazy.<br />
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However, now is the time for reasonable folks to step forward, and we intend to do so.<br />
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Of late, our creative juices have been spent on two avenues: <a href="https://thomasgardnerofsalem.blogspot.com/">Thomas Gardner Society, Inc.</a> site and blog; <a href="https://www.quora.com/profile/John-M-Switlik">Quora, the indescribable,</a> so to speak.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 12/24/2018</i><br />
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12/24/2018 -- Example Quora question: <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2018/12/what-goes-up.html">What goes up ... </a><br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-78702393241133436312017-09-19T23:22:00.001+01:002017-09-19T23:22:13.218+01:00The Great Unwinding<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we look at the Fed's departure. Hah.<br />
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Long ago, we asked <a href="https://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2013/01/ben-unwind.html">Ben to unwind</a>. The first request was 2009. Then, 2012 seemed like a good time.<br />
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Then, we had the <a href="http://fed-aerated.blogspot.com/2013/06/taper.html">taper tantrum</a>. Poor Ben, had to leave it to Janet. Who has only did little changes, so far.<br />
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BTW, 'Great Unwinding' is a headline in the WSJ for today (09/19/2017).<br />
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So, we are at some point in time that was anticipated long ago. Much ado about nothing?<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 09/19/2017</i><br />
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09/19/2017 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-59503033251000365852017-07-31T23:45:00.003+01:002017-07-31T23:45:34.326+01:00Billow and/or bubble <span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we look at the billowing markets.<br />
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Billow? As in, clouds fluffing and puffing up. BTW, has the Fed gone to the Tetons, yet, where the clouds will wafer up from Colorado's myriad of smoking joints?<br />
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The Dow is close to 22K. And, that is not seen as a bubble?<br />
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Hey, let's get it back to 12K.<br />
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At least, the 4T balance sheet gets news. Yes, it's to be trimmed, This time, there was no taper tantrum. Not as yet, anyway.<br />
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Meanwhile, savers, in come cases, are getting a penny on the dollar. Isn't that nice?<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 07/31/2017</i><br />
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07/31/2017 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-78829338852428217172017-06-27T19:50:00.002+01:002017-06-27T19:50:16.946+01:00Trickle<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we wonder how much a little trickle can sustain, say of some little plant in the desert of little moisture.<br />
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Much analysis is pending.<br />
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Well, we got another $0.25. I know. Just think what one gets $100 for a year. Gosh, back in the 50s, that might have bought a candy bar or two. So, we're talking a little snack for one day of the year. <br />
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On the other hand, the Fed is to reduce their huge balance sheet which is a good decision.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 06/27/2017</i><br />
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06/27/2017 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-51348362132292950752017-05-01T01:59:00.000+01:002017-05-01T01:59:36.260+01:00EconoSpeak<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we let others talk a little.<br />
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What to say about Janet and friends that has not already been said?<br />
<br />
Well, let's look elsewhere. This comment to a post was very much apropos to the point: <a href="http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2017/04/is-authoritarian-nationalism-mostly.html?showComment=1493464818610#c8411456856007206159">Is Authoritarian Nationalism Mostly A Rural Phenomenon</a>? Yes, what science do we find with economics? Ah, the FED and its pretense?<br />
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I'm not a bumpkin, but I was recently in DC. Oh Lord, it is not the intelligent little place that it was 40 years ago. What the heck happened? Yet, there are little islands of rationality such as those being managed by old civil servants who remember when there was some notion of class and responsibility.<br />
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Now, it's money, money, money (thanks, ABBA). <br />
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I'm thinking that we need some type of agrarian resurgence. See this on Quora:<a href="https://www.quora.com/Is-there-an-alternative-to-consumerism-to-keep-economy-going/answer/John-M-Switlik"> Is there an alternative to consumerism to keep economy going</a>?<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 04/30/2017</i><br />
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04/30/2017 --</div>
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-52862522413144157212017-03-31T21:00:00.002+01:002017-03-31T21:19:21.194+01:00Genie out of the bottle<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we look at recent findings.<br />
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Today, the news is that Russian paid trolls.Is anyone surprised? We ought not have let loose the Internet as we did. So, now, it's a mess. It was a mess the whole time after the commercial thrust got going.<br />
<br />
So, we cannot cry about spilled milk (or is it spoilt?). Well, actually, it's both.<br />
<br />
I have harped on this a long time. In fact, from a mobile sense, I am 1G/2G. From a computational sense, I do a lot of local processing. I rent a VM for my website. Cloud? It's a muddy mess. I do use it for storage. Carefully.<br />
<br />
When I see Silly Valley's results over the past couple of decades, I grieve. I'm old. But, the youngsters are going to have to clean up the messes. Oh sure, jobs.<br />
<br />
You know, the whole bit is screwy. Those who can play with data that they get from people's on-line activity. What? I almost barfed when I heard of that choice. It's like the mailman reading your mail. What idiot argued otherwise?<br />
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And so, here we are. I'll have to get back to writing posts, such as these: <a href="http://7-oops-7.blogspot.com/2017/03/we-let-genie-out-of-bottle.html">We let the genie out of the bottle</a> and <a href="http://truthengineering.blogspot.com/2017/03/bottles-and-genies.html">Genies and bottles</a>. Of course, Truth Engineering will have to get back into play.<br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 03/31/2017</i><br />
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03/31/2017 --</div>
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3242112972165304272.post-89634044388030593472017-03-19T23:49:00.001+00:002017-03-19T23:49:31.238+00:00Little drips<span style="font-weight: bold;">Moral: </span>Wherein we notice little stirrings.<br />
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Back in Ben's time, right after the downturn, he talked green shoots. The Fed had taken water from savers, and the elderly, in order to bring along those profligate ones who caused the downturn. Get 'em back on their feet, so to speak. So, like spring grass, Ben was watching to see if his watering was helping.<br />
<br />
Well, back then, we though that he had used up his bullets (arrows?). But, then, Ben, being clever, showed us. And, we now have a Fed with a huge balance sheet.<br />
<br />
Oh well. So, we got an increase, lately. Piddly thing. At the same time, the ca-pital-sino is going bonkers. Why not? It's been fed our water for years now. The party, there, continues.<br />
<br />
For years now, interest disclosures on Schedule B have been laughable. Well, I have not capitulated, nor will I. But, we'll see the time come when the discussion will be rational, once again.<br />
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In the meantime, remember this concept: magical multiplier. Too, know that those who run the games take largely (partly by moving value out from being accessible). <br />
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<b>Remarks: </b><i>Modified: 03/19/2017</i><br />
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03/19/2017 --<br />
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AJSwtlkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10927070658835473340noreply@blogger.com0