Sunday, May 31, 2015

John and his friends

Moral: Wherein we stop to consider, very briefly, the Magna Carta (WSJ overview).

Yes, the 800th anniversary of the first sealing comes soon. It will be a big deal for a lot of people.

For all? As the bifurcations that we see all around show us, many (most) have had minimal (or no) comfort from that long ago bit of activity and angst.

John and his friends
After all, a few generations later, we found major conflict between bickering cousins (one example of many).

Has that sort of thing become less common (has it been made worse by modernity, through means such as game theory?)? Did we learn from the war to end all wars?

Remarks:  Modified: 05/30/2015

05/30/2015 --

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

JFN, Jr.

Moral: Wherein we acknowledge that John Nash was a central figure in applying mathematics toward that which has over-laid our lives in ways that, perhaps, need to be (seriously) reconsidered.

Who?  John Forbes Nash, Jr.  There has been a lot written about him. There was a movie. This PBS page provides a brief bio, with photos.

For some reason, I, recently (before Saturday 5/23/15), re-looked at a book that I had on the shelf, for awhile. And, what was that? Siegfried's A Beautiful Math. I got it via a book club that required so many purchases a year. It went on a shelf after it arrived in the mail.

On the first look, on that day of re-acquaintance, I had to keep from barfing since the author was heaping praise on game theory and John, to the high heavens. In terms of the former, "game theory has applicability everywhere" was one theme. Okay? In terms of the latter, if you don't buy the ideas, you're dumb, essentially.  But, despite that visceral reaction, I did start to look at the book's message more closely that I would have a few years earlier.

Too, I pondered my state of Rip-Van-Wrinkle-ness. I have written elsewhere that with the downturn coming to light (say, 2007 timeframe) I started to look at the state of things. "What did the idiots do?," was my question. Everywhere I looked, more and more stupidity (then, we had Made-off). Well, we are far after that bit of things; the savers are still being flayed.

But, with John passing, I will have to pay even more attention to the whole affair, even to the technical aspects (which I started on Saturday, 5/23/15, with a respectful mindset - mind you, I was academically exposed quite well in the 70s, so no need for lectures - remember, autodidact). After all, the notions (in my blogs - they're there from the beginning) behind the arguments to consider quasi-empirical issues (much more involved here than many might think, see the Wikipedia page) are motivated by those ideas/concepts so much loved nowadays (without due regard, in too many instances - yeah, cloud'ers), part of which is the game-theoretic thread. So much to say, here.

Given that Siegfried's book is on-line, we can reference it and its sources. But, again, when this? Well, as said before, that is not known, as of now.

Remarks:  Modified: 05/30/2015

05/26/2015 -- For starters, Blaise (yes, a friend) needs to have his outlook updated so as to show how strong it is. Of course, in reference to Siegfried's look, we're talking Chapter 11. As an aside, I do like the tie in with Asimov's fictional sagas.

05/30/2015 -- We will get back to the technical issues.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Most cannot and never have been able to

Moral: Wherein we state the obvious: most (way above 50%) cannot (and never will) get their monies out of the ca-pital-sino due to many reasons which we will enumerate (ad infinitum).

Give us time. Essentially, the equity propaganda is based upon faulty models. The whole framework looks at the winners (one side of near-zero). In actuality, that very much larger set of non-winners (no, not losers - it is not a closed situation) is more important on the whole.


In essence, someone of Janet's ilk needs to realize the importance of a reasonable interest rate applied to instruments that are safe and sound (in so far as is humanly possible to attain). To bring that about will require a re-look at the current basis of belief (of course, the accouterments that accompany the big pockets and "winners" in the current system make it difficult to get the conversation going in a proper manner - worse than a catch-22, if you would).


Now, to be technical, for a moment, there are all sorts of analyses going on everyday. Much of this it yapped about ceaselessly all day (Lord, deliver us - yes, Cramer, you, too).

One that came to mind was Tobin's q (he is the Nobel winner). Skirting for the moment all of the questions of defining, and determining, value (about which we have been writing: 7oops7, Tru'eng, FEDareated), Tobin would have us relate the total sum of assets to the current market value. If the ratio is above 1, then things are (may be) puffy (as we see now, where bubble is more appropriate).

But, you know, the magical multiplier would have to be collapsed in order to get the proper market value. And, that, then, would settle the issue.

Tobin's q and
Market Cap / GDP
And, too, the whole notion of most not getting their claim comes from that little sleight of hand that has been accepted as the only way to do things (complete misuse of Adam).


The VectorGrader site provides a graph of Tobin's q since 1950. But, notice all of the other valuation charts that are offered, like Market Capital to GDP which looks similar. For each, there is a brief description of how the chart is calculated.

Also, provides a nice summary and discussion.


So, let's back up. The motivation for this was a BloombergBusiness report about Tobin: Nobel Winner's Math is Showing S&P 500 Unhinged From Reality. The report discusses the case that the markets may be frothy. In doing so, it covers the following topics:
  • Dissenting Views - one of these says that worrying about the "q" would have kept one out of this market. Oh yes, that is the point being made here (if you got in, you have accumulated ill-begotten gains (enjoy them, quiet (if you can) your conscience) - not available to everyone).
  • Slow Spending - and we know about this; cutting costs (removing workers - working the remaining to an inch of their health) and hoarding money (also, buying your own stock to keep the price up) and ... What is equity for, anyway? The basis for gaming (financial manipulations) or a means to support real economic decisions?
  • Mean Reversion - Ah, investors? What about the people being screwed who are those with their hands in the dirt, who are keeping things afloat for the fat cats (riders of the system's magic carpet - coddled to the max), ...?
  • Bond Yields - oh yes, no where else to go but equity markets? Not. Somehow, a real economic view needs to be expressed here (Janet, et al, are too much of the game as defined to try to grasp the issues - Ben could not see the last downturn when it was starting to happen right under his nose -- but, he showed us that he had not run out of bullets - did we really say that?). 
All in all, it was a nice article, however it does not address the real issue. For that matter, who does (except for this blogger)?


Too, we need to look at whether markets can be fair or not. Oh, sure. that argument reverts back to the fantasy of "efficient" market. While people argue and nitpick about that, others slave away or starve.

Remarks:  Modified: 06/18/2015

06/18/2015 -- We have to see how this insanity got its start. Then, we'll see why most do not get their money (the value is strained out daily by those who run the game). Everyone, it seems, has bought into the game (but, we're not tilting either at an illusion - despite having used chimera).

Monday, May 18, 2015

Does it or does it not?

Moral: Wherein we start our own analysis, albeit that we had a big bubble day (with the DOW, et al, hugely inflated from Ben's/Janet's largess).

And the question? Look at this from a recent USA Today article: Despite tumult, stock-market tenets still ring true (which they took from the AZ Republic).

Oh? I am not picking on them. WSJ, too. Everyone was writing due to a report. Which was?

Ibbotson's. This thing that looks at a hypothetical $1 from 1926 or so and carries it forward. Say what? I wrote about that type of thing in March: FED gives Wall Street its wishes.

So, because of this Morningstar report the talking heads say that equity reigns. Why do they say that? Especially, when we look at ca-pital-sino, chimera, etc.?

Three years ago, Waggoner was saying that bonds had beat stock for the past 30 years (USA Today, again). Of course, who saw the bubble (many still do not)?


One reason that there are such large collectors of bucks (and the resulting bifurcation within the populace in terms of pocket size) is that the game is stacked in the favor of the few (to be defined further - the masses have never been able to (in fact, cannot) partake in the growing economy - want to talk take-a-ways, for example?).

How can we show this illusory state? Well, give us time (I know, I don't have eternity). The thing is that most cannot take from the market scenario without there being serious depletion that results in the popping of that which is entailed by the magical multiplier (fictitious capital? know said that?). This needs to be explained in a way that everyone can see the truth of the matter. Now, per usual, there will be sides to the argument. At least, we can expose the "fraudulent" claim that these financial machinations are good for the populace, in general, rather than being mainly for the fat cats.

By the way, this is not to pick on anyone in particular. Did you know that a major brain in the early part of the 20th century said that there is no way to win in these games without insider information and manipulation thereby? Who? Bohr (on funds, and more).

So, how can a just society/economy be built upon this (type of) silly game?

Remarks:  Modified: 06/18/2015

05/20/2015 -- Well, finally, no, it does not. And, most cannot and never have been able to get their hands on that ephemeral bit of stuff that is so important to the fat cats.

06/18/2015 -- We have to see how this insanity got its start. Then, we'll see why most do not get their money (the value is strained out daily by those who run the game). Everyone, it seems, has bought into the game (but, we're not tilting either at an illusion - despite having used chimera).

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Dire, indeed

Moral: Wherein we let Steve do the talking.

See, 7'oops7, Talking to the choir. Without knowing the particulars, just look at the image, as if it were the psychological blot test.

Hey, that might be a good little exercise. As in, collect reactions.

Remarks:  Modified: 06/18/2015

05/14/2015 -- And so, after the post and content has been digested (does not imply absence of forethought), then epilog bits come to fore. The first half of that letter is what resonates. Then, Ben&Steve talking "incredible returns" in the stock market grates (harshly). For one, the thing, as run now, is a ca-pital-sino and very much can be characterized by near-zero (both terms have links in the text). Too, though, is the whole thing of the magical multiplier (wild expansion of value), of returns mainly for the early birds (connivers), and of enormous grabs (by some) that desires serious analysis (again, foreclosure - not in any way now profiting, nor in the past profited, from the gaming - whose main thing is to impoverish the masses). ... There will be a change in tone, thanks to Canfield (yes, he of the chicken soup thing). --- So, the diatribe series will stand as an example: so-called constructive looks, No. 1, No. 2, No. 3.

06/18/2015 -- We have to see how this insanity got its start. Then, we'll see why most do not get their money (the value is strained out daily by those who run the game). Everyone, it seems, has bought into the game (but, we're not tilting either at an illusion - despite having used chimera).

Friday, May 1, 2015

Near zero, again

Moral: Wherein we begin to re-look at an important concept.

Near zero? Yes, we first used that way back before Ben and Janet started and kept up their largess which Ben is now out defending (his blog and more - God, Ben, our view is from under the bus where you threw us - get off of your Olympian height).


Say what? Well, "near-zero" now alludes to the fact of easy money policies (with the resulting financial types just gloating while they explode like pigs in a poke). You see, the interest rate that is paid to certain types (via certain media) is zilch or about as close as you can get.


What I was using "near zero" for really has to due with the fact of the chimeric nature related to non-zero sum arguments. Yes.

Ben would need to have this explained to him in however long it would take him to understand. The bifurcation of the enriched versus the others has accelerated with his policy (well, he may not have started the split, but he sure enough worsened the problem - do they even see the reality of the people being trampled?). ...

We are now to where the so-called investors (meaning, of course, that the ca-pital-sino is more about gaming and gambling than investment - which does, everyone, have very much to do with the future -and not that immediate one of getting drunk/partying on gambling gains) are tightly bound to the teat of the FED. Janet is afraid to shake them loose.


Wait, there are some normative issues that ought to be looked at. True enough. The answers are not easily found, nowadays. Yet, Ben persists (his push back to the WSJ).


So, in essence, we will have to think up a better term (neo-near-zero?) for the concept first used in 2008 (a June 2008 post titled "counting oops"; place holder recognizing the use without definition dates to March 2009; a recap showing early uses in 2012). And, Ben (and ilk), it deals with a reality far removed from those whose hands never get dirty (the scum of the earth after whom the real people clean up - oh, but, then it's a job - yes, ..., that which Ben talks (as in, jobs) is a hold-over from warped capitalistic thinking).

Remarks:  Modified: 05/18/2015

05/18/2015 -- We have to include discussion of does it or not