Thursday, August 28, 2014

The chimera attracts a lot of attention

Moral: Wherein we look around at all of the viewpoints (as in, Janet's is only one of many).

First, a disclosure. There was the beginning of a re-look at finance/economics six years ago from two viewpoints (pointer to the first post on finance, both September, 2007): truth engineering, 7oops7.
  • The first blog has a more general theme which will be of more interest as things unwind (that is, when Janet deigns to let things take a "natural" course - she cannot keep her finger in the hole in the dike forever). As mentioned in that first blog (2007), things looked zero-sum at the time (even with all those talking win-win; too, remember all of those who said that we had "risk" trumped?). As time went on, near-zero became into focus (and will be explained further). As well, the whole gaming aspect makes one think of finance as basically a playground for the few (diaper'd set, for the most part, who we had to clean up after - idiots, and we'll go on about this). 
  • The second blog started with a focus on engineering issues. One hard problem is earned value. Essentially, that deals with knowing how well progress measures are showing real status. Okay? Just like accountants can cook the books, project people play with these types of numbers (or, let's say, have been known to; however, saying that glosses over a whole lot of issues). But, it became apparent, about this time, that the brains of finance had led us astray - what? again? Remember, my advanced academic work was done in mathematical economics, for the most part. But, I worked, during my career, with engineering problems. When I woke up to the fact of the dire straits (not personal), old Rip came to mind. WTF? And, look, brains, I still am asking that? ... So, you see, evaluations (establishing value - needs to be updated) are more commonly necessary than one might realize. That is, operationally, we need to do this. What has happened, though, is that a whole lot of this type of stuff is being applied mindlessly (sheesh, talk about a real need for mindfulness).  

Today I ran across some writings by Doug Short (searching on evaluations). He started his blog in 2005 and found success: dShort Updates. Too, he has a data focus (with lots of nice charts). Too, he and I have some parallels, though I may be a little older. I like that he is autodidact in economics (there is a lot to discuss here). Actually, in any field, one has to follow one's own lead if venturing outside of the mainstream.

So, Doug is on the reference list that I need to build (early collection of blogs and miscellany). There will be more viewpoints added to the list.


Aside: Look at my academic and career background. Note, please, Data-Driven Purgatory has a lot behind it. Of course, it is my responsibility to support and to argue for the position. But, for beginners, consider, please quasi-empirical imperatives (trutheng, 7oops7). Despite large numbers (and their gifts), we are being over-layed insidiously with pseudo-truths abetted via computation and its mathematical associates and ought to be quaking in our boots. Even the IEEE wrote about having jobs in big-daddy data (essentially, machine learning and statistical testing). Forget ISIS (they, at least, are true to their word). This is much worse since it poses with such a nice demeanor while plotting our demise (not physical, as ISIS would have; no, intellectual and spiritual death - much, much worse.

Remarks:  Modified: 02/11/2015

01/15/2015 -- At last, a series that will establish the basis and extensions, as required. We are going to go back to some simple and come forward to the modern, complicated economy. Why? My long chain of ancestors (inherited via Prof. Lucio Arteaga) is one motivation.

02/11/2015 -- Wikipedia: Zero interest rate policy.

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