Sunday, July 27, 2014

Data-driven purgatory

Moral: Wherein we pipe up, just to show the interest is still there.

So, what is going on? Well, we're waiting to see Janet's influence emerge. Right now, it's still a sampling stage, it seems.
Janet's dashboard

The latest thing that motivated something here was Janet's talking about data-driven approaches (see the recent Bloomberg Businessweek interview, for example). As in, the data that she is looking at now won't get her to stop flaying the savers. Well, Janet, change your data goggles, for one thing.

Too, we all know that Economics is dismal. All of that data has so many faults (approach, viewpoint, ...) that any strict adherence to whatever comes from economic data can be categorized, at best, as irrational, especially if the exuberance at the data's wonderfulness is demonstrably obvious.

Savers are barely holding on to life. Who are they? Let's look at the other side. What rational society would indebted its future generations so heavily as we seem to expect now? Crazy. Of course, people needs jobs to spend and to save and to pay their debts. 

But, the gaming that is evident now, with the ballooning pockets, does not an economy make. Janet, have you looked at the infrastructural issues, of late -- say, the uncountable failing bridges, highways falling apart - and, those with the biggest pockets want to step away, taking their gains, which do not take into account the totality of costs? Near zero is the thing to bring forward in the discussion in this case.  

Look, debt even at a low interest is still that. Debt is something to manage and control. Too, the whole model of thinking that the consumer drives things, requiring debt thereby, is suspect. 


Aside. Alan was king while Ben was a real nice prince (the 17K+ can be mostly attributed to his largess). What can we say about Janet? Too early to tell. But, however this all unfolds, she will be bringing several unknowns to the table that we have not seen before. 

By the way, data driven implies computational system (which is so full of holes that we ought to be quaking in our boots) and many unresolved issues. Methinks that "data driven" brings along with it some type of blinders that are comforting to some folks.  


And, none of this ought to misconstrued as anti-science. Janet is right on one thing (perhaps, more). Rule-driven is chasing after silver bullets and is especially troublesome due to its reliance upon the computational. But, then her data-driven mindset is as problematic. 

Remarks:  Modified: 07/26/2015

07/31/2014 -- Added in Yellen's dashboard. Why is it that flaying the savers is the key action? She could have delayed the tapering and taken the rate up a notch or two. ... With the DOW sagging, as it is today, what will Janet do? More coo-coo as we saw from Ben all of these past years? 

08/05/2014 -- Will Janet talk goo-goo, coo-coo to the addicts? Actually, now might be a good time, in the confusion, to raise the interest rate to 1.25% or so. And, establish 1.0% as a lower bound.

09/17/2014 -- Yes, she did. The coo-coo, goo-goo goes on. The landscape is strewn with the lifeless bodies of the savers. Thanks, Janet.

01/15/2015 -- At last, a series that will establish the basis and extensions, as required. We are going to go back to some simple and come forward to the modern, complicated economy. Why? My long chain of ancestors (inherited via Prof. Lucio Arteaga) is one motivation.

07/26/2015 -- This has had some recent reads. Lots going on, including poster boys coming out of the woodwork. We intend to get back to this topic: consumer as central to things economic (metaphysically sound).

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Rules for the Fed (Yellen)

Moral: Wherein we let John Taylor, et al, do some talking.

Yellen, and her ways and means, is under scrutiny. What that might foretell is something that we will have to watch and, perhaps, learn from.

John Taylor says that the Fed ought to follow its rules. WSJ: The Fed Needs to Return to Monetary Rules (there have been other articles the past few months). That raises a question: whose rules? Well, Taylor's, for example?

Rules? Who runs their life this way? Oh, I know, many. But, free people have fewer rules than do those under someone else's thumb. We just celebrated our supposed freedom a few days ago. But, look closely at all of the ties that bind (some very insidious - yes, thanks to Zuck and that ilk).

But, you have to wonder if Ben (little Timmy) and that whole crowd loved playing cowboy and rescuing the economy from those that were let loose by largess to begin with. The solution? More largess. Cowboy (apologies to the real cattle handlers)? Yes, that has been used to denote those who shoot from the hip (which suggests running amok, so to speak, versus being methodical) as Ben seemed to be doing as he, creatively, went deeper into manipulating in new ways.

Wait! The Fed does claim to be data-driven. So, pending discussion lurks here.


There is nothing cynical to the viewpoint. Rather, we are in a mess for several reasons. For one, who knows what is what? Even if we did not have the fact of disinformation, there are all sorts of human foibles that we face. One of those is our real lack of insight, purported evidence otherwise notwithstanding. Secondly, we have a century-plus of mish-mash mathematics (ah, how to get this discussed) to contend with. Thirdly, the computer exacerbated, and spread the influence of, the second (just prior) note. Yes, several genies are out of the bottle. ... The litany is long.

Out of control, essentially.


We knew that unwinding's effects would be something to observe. Yellen's delaying this is only going to make things worse. But, then, however she and her kind unfold the future will result in the unexpected. So, we will have a show to watch no matter.

It is just that the savers were de-skinned as a result of Ben's ways and means. Anyone care? The consumption side would only work if debt is constrained. But, how? We can get to that. Consider, what kind of sustainable economy would impoverish future generations by loading them up with debt that is now being accumulated?

Say what? Yes, we'll get back to that, too.

However, there are many examples of debt being used to fill the pockets of some. As in, equity-biased folks stacking debt on a company (that debt allowing big payouts to the participants - to wit, if you doubt this, Hawker - 2008 post, want to discuss what ensured in the following period?) with the hope that an IPO would spread this amongst supposed investors.


We ought not envy Yellen (her limousine, big office, etc.) as she has (and will continue to have) to deal with Ben's gifting of the monied.

Remarks:  Modified: 02/11/2015

07/09/2014 -- Markets were down yesterday. Lots of talk of heated values. Then, Yellen talks goo-goo, or the markets think. So, we have an up day. Goo-goo? Actually a release of notes from an earlier meeting. Insanity? There is no way that all in markets can get their bucks when needed. That story needs to be told more clearly. Why? The cheshire multiple, for one. 

02/11/2015 -- Wikipedia: Zero interest rate policy.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Startling news?

Moral: Wherein we commiserate with Ben that he is not at the Fed desk as the results of his largess come to fore. Well, Janet can claim some credit; too, she'll have to handle the downside that is coming.

What results? Well, the DOW running sky high.

The headline says it all: Dow flirts with 17,000, but most people missed the ride. (emphasis mine)

It ought to read: Dow flirts, but most people cannot ride. (why not? to where does an illusion take one?)

---- This was brought from a Facebook post, dated 7/2/2014 ----

Most people missed the ride? Even those who got on that "train" will lose out. That is by definition how the system works. Its main purpose is to lure the hapless. 

Even under the best of situations, the "most" cannot get out of this type of market what they have put in. That message is never given. Rather, the talking heads say that people did not get on and missed the "train." It would be comical if it were not so sad. Ah, let's count our hypothetical wealth (and, arguing that the cash equivalents are as flaky is not proper - to be discussed).

Again, all of those on the train cannot get their booty (the Zucks of the world have and will). Why? The cheshire multiple, the chimera, and such.

Early sellers get the goodies. At some point, which is a lot closer to the top than you might expect, the majority of the rest become losers since they must sell below their cost. Oh, wait it out, is the adage? Not if you need your money (and a whole lot of other reasoned responses - these issues have always been known, but the gaming fills the pockets of those who run the system).

So, one big disservice, of many, of the FED, of late, has been not allowing a rationally sufficient return to those who want to preserve principal. No, they would rather push gaming (as if that is the proper mindset for a sustainable economy - to be discussed). 

Remarks:  Modified: 07/03/2014

07/01/2014 -- Euphoric territory? How do images and illusions attract so strongly?